Introduction (Toni Wilson – Chair, SLA CI Division)

Analysis turns information into intelligence.  So, it is a treat to hear from an expert on competitive analysis – Dr. Craig Fleisher – in today’s blog entry.  Dr. Fleisher provides a summary of some of the analytical tools that information professionals responsible for CI tasks can use to create actionable intelligence, adding value to the decision-making process and making our organizations future-ready.

by Dr. Craig S. Fleisher

Competitive intelligence (CI) has always been a key tool in the organizational future readiness tool-kit. By its very nature, intelligence is forward looking and helps organizations take actions today in often complex, fast-moving and  uncertain environments that will better position them for the future.  To illustrate this point, I’ll identify a few analytical tools I have written about in my books [i] that are part of the essential CI tool kit.

Driving forces analysis (DFA) is a way of understanding and accounting for possible change at the industry level. “Drivers” are clusters of trends that create influences on changes to an industry’s structure and a rival’s competitive conduct. CI practitioners use this tool to better understand how attractive or profitable their industries may be at a designated future point.

Growth vector analysis (GVA) helps the practitioner review the different product alternatives available to an organization in relation to its market options. By undertaking a systematic evaluation of the market, competitive conditions and market growth opportunities can be identified and understood. GVA is one of the first steps in the process of targeting profitable growth opportunities. This tool organizes the myriad of growth opportunities into a manageable framework.

Various forms of life cycle analysis, focused for example on targets like issues, organizations, patents, products or technology (for example), help the practitioner to understand how the focal element will ordinarily evolve. By understanding the ordinary evolution of the item, the practitioner can better gauge tactics and strategies to leverage actions to extend an item in its growth stages, or to identify the best time to develop new products or services when the present ones require replacement.

Scenario planning and analysis is a structured way of developing multiple scenarios that compensate for two common decision-making errors, namely under- and over- prediction of change. Through a disciplined yet creative approach, scenario analysis is a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis that imagines many possible futures of environmental change, reduces these many scenarios to a manageable number of possibilities, incorporates sensitivity analysis to determine dependent variable relationships, and isolates trends and patterns to counteract blind-spots in strategic decision making. It provides a framework to couch future decisions around the strategic posture of an organization in an increasingly competitive marketplace.

Information professionals that understand the application of these analytical tools can enhance organizational future readiness efforts. The use of each of these tools requires specific types of data and informational inputs. I can think of no other professionals in today’s organizations that can acquire these informational inputs as proficiently special librarians. You are needed by planners, marketers, strategists and decision makers, among others,  to help your organizations succeed in the future. Knowing how these future-focused CI tools are employed is just another way that your contribution can make a significant difference!

Dr. Fleisher is the Chief Learning Officer of Aurora WDC, Madison, Wisconsin. A former business school dean, MBA director and university research chair, he has authored 10+ books, been President of SCIP (Strategic & Competitive Intelligence Professionals), editor of the Journal of Competitive intelligence and Management, and was awarded SCIP’s Meritorious and Fellow recognitions for his contributions to the field of Competitive Intelligence.

by Eric Garland

The Special Libraries Association has chosen, most wisely, for this year’s theme to be “Future Ready 365.” The current moment is not only the perfect time to become future-focused, but moreover, the information professionals of SLA are the perfect group to help their organizations transform their cultures to make this possible. The key is intelligence.

Let us get some terms defined. The “future” is not just an extrapolation of yesterday’s growth trends – it’s a transformative disruption, a non-linear break from the world we know. Our current economy’s success has been based on the availability of endless resources, scarce information, and stable institutions. Tomorrow’s economy will be defined by scarce resources (notably petroleum, potable water, and certain heavy metals), endless information, and unstable institutions; a complete turnaround.

Yesterday’s success was driven by rapidly expanding industrial consumerism, buoyed by a large Boomer demographic and the complete failure of Soviet Communism. Every company, every country could follow essentially the same gameplan. Expand! Merge and acquire! Advertise! Downsize! Securitize! Profitize! Given unprecedented resource constraints, tomorrow’s success will be about each company, country, region, and individual choosing a creative path to transforming how value is created and shared. What’s more, as the financial system begins to strain under the weight of its own internal contradictions, we will not even account for it in the same manner.

Yes, this is a big deal. No, nobody has the answers. I don’t; as librarians, you don’t either. You will, however, begin receiving some very interesting questions.

• What is the business model of the future?
• Who are the competitors we haven’t yet even thought of?
• Who will our customer be in ten years? Twenty? Do we even know who they are yet?
• What are the wildcards, the low-probability, high-impact events that could mean disaster — or fabulous success?

Now that we know what might shape the future, we want to be ready. This does not mean you need to predict the future, but you can very well anticipate it, prepare in advance for your actions, and to act when prompted by events. To meet this high standard, an organization must have a steady stream of intelligence. This is where librarians can be major catalysts. You can become experts in where the best information resides, which questions to ask next, and even who can help answer them. Data is worthless, analysis is king, and insight is golden. As librarians, you can help your colleagues find trend data from the least biased sources and forecasts from the world’s best subject matter experts. You can ask the follow up questions - What does this mean? What information do we need next?  What scenarios are suggested by what we are finding?

Very few organizations create a culture that regularly asks these questions and provides the services that give answers. The ones who do are beating the market, indeed creating their own future. When SLA exhorts you to become future ready, it is declaring itself to be a group of leaders who truly understand what this transformation is about. Their challenge is daunting, exhilarating, and bound to make your intellectual life – and your career – an adventure for years to come.

Accept that challenge.

Author, speaker, futurist and intelligence expert Eric Garland guides leaders of all stripes through a world of chaotic transformation. He watches future trends, competition, geopolitics and everything else. He gives people ways to understand the change and make better decisions. You can read Eric Garland’s latest book, How to Predict the Future…and WIN!!!, follow him on Twitter (@ericgarland, and on the Web at www.ericgarland.co and www.competitivefutures.com.